Delta 2011

 

(Late abstract submission is accepted for special consideration. See "Important Dates")

(Papers: see “List of selected papers”) 

 

Thirty years ago an estimated half of the developing world lived in extreme poverty and a quarter of this population remains impoverished today (World Bank, 2009). Economic growth strategies contingent on technological innovation and institutional reform produced significant increases in developing country per capita income, but in spite of this, the global number of hungry people passed the one billion mark in 2009 for the first time in history (World Bank, 2009). Poverty alleviation remains the overarching priority for developing countries in spite of the significant gains witnessed in recent years. The on-going task of reducing levels of hunger and destitution will, however, be complicated by climate change which has the potential to reverse many of the recent improvements created by economic growth.

 

The deltas and adjacent coastal zones of the developing world are home to large population densities and are significant centers of urbanization, agricultural production and industrial development. These areas contain critically important ecosystems such as mangroves and other brackish water habitats that support a diverse range of fisheries and aquatic species. The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2007) identified Asia’s mega-deltas as particularly vulnerable to future global change. The reasons for the reported declines in functionality and increase in vulnerability are many and varied, but there is a common thread, anthropogenic induced change to these sensitive environments. For example, prior to industrialization the large rivers of Southeast and East Asia provided nutrient rich sediments to deltas at an annual rate in excess of 2.5 gigatonnes resulting in the formation of 40 km² of new land annually. Estimates suggest that current rates of deposition have declined to less that 1 gigatonne per annum and that new land formation has come to a standstill or is even shrinking (Saito et al., 2007). Human induced changes are largely responsible for this decline in sediment supply to the coast with specific contributing factors including: the construction of dams, sand mining, irrigation, and land subsidence caused by the over-abstraction of groundwater.

 

The mega-deltas of the South, Southeast and East Asia are also the rice granaries for the regions and contribute significantly to global food supply. Sea level rise, reduced sediment deposition and altered growing condition could have major negative implications on the productive output from these deltas, further affecting global food stocks and increasing the potential for shortages. Considering that the production of an additional 8 to 10 million tons of rice is required annually over the next 20 years to meet projected demand, understanding the implications of climate change on Asian deltas represent a critical food security and development issues. Read More...